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Mischaracterizing U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Policy: The Myth of Deliberate Civilian Targeting David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Foreign Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from 2017-2019. Introduction As the debate over the proper role for nuclear weapons in U.S. national security […]

Extended Deterrence:  Back to the Future David J. Lonsdale David J. Lonsdale is a Senior Lecturer in War Studies, at the University of Hull, UK. His publications include Understanding Contemporary Strategy, Understanding Modern Warfare, and Alexander the Great: Lessons in Strategy. Introduction It is well understood that deterrence is a challenging strategic activity.[1] Said challenge […]

Tilting at Windmills: Nuclear Disarmament Advocacy in an Anarchic World Order Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

Five Arms Control Lessons for the 100th Anniversary of the 1922 Washington Naval Conference Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy.  He was formerly Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy at the Pentagon. The 100th anniversary of the conclusion of the […]

Joint Prepared Statement and Opening Remarks Before the United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, United States Nuclear Strategy and Policy, September 20, 2022 Eric S. Edelman, Counselor, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Franklin C. Miller, Principal, The Scowcroft Group. Joint Statement Introduction Chairman Reed, Ranking member Inhofe, members of the Committee, thank […]

A Curious Criterion: Cost Effective at the Margin for Missile Defense Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy.  He was formerly Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy at the Pentagon. Introduction What are the valid criteria for choosing a homeland missile […]

Deterrence Via Mutual Vulnerability? Why Not Now Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. […]

The Importance of Professional Nuclear Policy Analysis Tom Ramos Tom Ramos is a physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and author of From Berkeley to Berlin: How the Rad Lab Helped Avert Nuclear War (Naval Institute Press, 2022). In a recent article entitled, “Deterrence is Not Rocket Science: It is More Difficult,”[i] Keith Payne […]

Allied Assurance and Extended Deterrence in Multipolarity[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Today, the United States and its allies find themselves amidst significant changes in the strategic environment. These changes are generating new extended deterrence and assurance requirements.[2] Extended deterrence and assurance are […]

Rethinking Deterrence:  How and Why[1] Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The following […]

Trust Without Verification: The Wrong Approach to Arms Control Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and […]

China’s Strategic Ambitions: A Strategy to Address China’s Nuclear Breakout Jennifer Bradley Jennifer Bradley is a Senior Deterrence Analyst in the Plans and Policy Directorate at United States Strategic Command.  She is also a doctoral student in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies program.  The views presented in this article are those of the […]

Nuclear Fears: Are We Forgetting Nuclear Dangers? Michael Rühle Michael Rühle is Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section in NATO’s Emerging Security Challenges Division. The views expressed are his own. Some Western observers have long been lamenting about what they perceive as a fading of nuclear fears among the broader population. In contrast […]

The U.S. ASAT Test Ban: Implications for Security Steve Lambakis Steve Lambakis is a Senior Defense Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, Fairfax, VA, and the Strategic Alliance Business Group, Fairfax, VA. On April 18, 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that the United States had adopted a unilateral ban on conducting direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) […]

Western Ideas of War and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Beatrice Heuser Beatrice Heuser is an historian and holds the Chair of International Relations at the University of Glasgow. She is currently seconded to the General Staff College of the Bundeswehr in Hamburg. Her recent book, War: A Genealogy of Western Ideas and Practices, was published by […]

Deterrence is Not Rocket Science: It is More Difficult Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to […]

The Logic of Israel’s Laser Wall Ilan Berman Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. In early February, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced a major new defense initiative when, in an address to Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, he laid out his administration’s […]

Russian Nuclear Strategy in the Ukraine War: An Interim Report Dr. Stephen Blank Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense or the United States government. Introduction Russian nuclear threats preceded […]

Russia’s War in Ukraine and Implications for Its Influence Operations in the West Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and its subsequent atrocities on Ukrainian territory have affected Moscow’s ability to successfully conduct influence operations in […]

Deterrence in Contemporary U.S.-Russian Relations Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

Multilateral Deterrence:  What’s New and Why it Matters Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the […]

Russian Use of Nuclear Coercion against NATO and Ukraine Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and […]

The Value of Nuclear Crisis Simulations Dr. James H. Anderson Dr. James H. Anderson served from 2018 to 2020 as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities and as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.  Introduction Reports over the past year about China’s growing nuclear capabilities, to include the discovery of new […]

Deterring China:  A Victory Denial Strategy Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

This Special Issue of National Institute’s Information Series commemorates the 39th anniversary of President Reagan’s March 23, 1983 speech introducing the Strategic Defense Initiative.  Below is the speech given by the Rt Hon the Baroness Thatcher LG OM FRS to a conference hosted by the National Institute for Public Policy on December 3, 1998.  In […]

Different Countries, Different Methods, Same Goal: Destroy Democracy Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy.  Influence operations enable the Russian Federation to compensate for disadvantages in other areas of state power.[1] New technologies are making them cheaper and more potent, even if their principles haven’t […]

Pitfalls in Deterring a Taiwan Strait Conflict: “Unpreparable War” Sugio Takahashi Sugio Takahashi is Head of the Defense Policy Division of the Policy Studies Department at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies. The views reflected here are his own. Introduction With the end of the Cold War, the fear of all-out nuclear war drastically declined. […]

This Changes Many Things: Post-Truth and National Security Dr. Gary L. Geipel Dr. Gary L. Geipel is a Senior Associate of the National Institute for Public Policy, a professor and coordinator of the doctoral program in Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, and a corporate-communications and external-affairs consultant to industry. Introduction In the […]

An Introduction to the 2020 Report on the Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States Dr. Robert Soofer Dr. Robert Soofer is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.  Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy.  He was formerly Special […]

Deterring Eastern Storms Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of […]

Russia and Missile Defense: Toward An Integrated Approach Dr. Peppino DeBiaso Dr. Peppino DeBiaso served as Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense from 2000-2021. He is currently Adjunct Professor in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies Graduate Program in Washington D.C. and a Senior Associate (non-resident) […]