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European Allies’ Views of Russia’s Nuclear Policy after the Escalation of Its War in Ukraine Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s nuclear threats have not gone unnoticed among citizens of European nations, including in those countries that reportedly host U.S. battlefield (also sometimes […]

Deterrence via Intentional Civilian Targeting: A Dangerous Cold War Anachronism Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

The October 2023 Strategic Commission Report and U.S. Nuclear Weapons Requirements Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, […]

TLAM-N and SLCM-N: Lessons for Extended Deterrence and Assuring Allies Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of […]

How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Russia Have? The Size and Characteristics of the Russian Nuclear Stockpile Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, […]

Back to the Future: U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Today and the Foster Panel Study* Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the […]

What Do Russia’s Nuclear Threats Tell Us About Arms Control Prospects? Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Arms control with the Russian Federation has hit a rough patch due to Russia’s essential shut down of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), aggressive […]

The Rejection of Intentional Population Targeting for “Tripolar” Deterrence Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Dr. John […]

The Fallacy of “Deterrence by Detection” David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy.  Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from 2017-2019. In 2021, then-Commandant of the Marine Corps, General David Berger, outlined a new way of thinking about deterrence, which he […]

How to Unsettle an Alliance:  Subordinate Extended Deterrence to Antiquated Arms Control Initiatives Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the […]

The Death of the New START Treaty Dr. Mark Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director […]

Arms Control in the Emerging Deterrence Context[1] Keith B. Payne Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. David J. […]

Self-Perceptions and Nuclear Weapons  Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. Introduction The Middle East may be on the brink of […]

On Arms Control and Why New START’s Suspension Does Not Really Matter Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States ought not mourn Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). Claims that the treaty was “a key stabilizing force […]

Information Operations against the United States: Defensive Actions are Needed John A. Gentry John A. Gentry is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. He is a former CIA analyst and a retired U.S. Army Reserve officer. He writes frequently on intelligence-related topics. Countries long have tried to influence important foreign audiences, often by using their […]

Emerging Challenges to Extended Deterrence, Assurance and the Future of U.S. Alliances Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office […]

An Interview with General Kevin Chilton (USAF, Ret.), former Commander of U.S. Strategic Command Gen. Chilton addresses the Biden Administration’s nuclear policies, the threats posed by China and Russia, and the importance of having a credible nuclear deterrent in a dynamic international strategic environment.  This interview was conducted by David J. Trachtenberg, Vice President of […]

Continuity and Change in Nuclear Modernization: Ensuring an Effective Future Nuclear Deterrent Thomas S. Troyano Thomas S. Troyano is a Vice President at Systems Planning and Analysis (SPA) and former Director for Strategic Deterrence and Capabilities in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment.  The views expressed in this article […]

Nuclear Disarmament:  The Contemporary “Great Illusion”? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Introduction […]

Cybersecurity Considerations for the New Congress Laurin Groover Laurin Groover spent over a decade on Capitol Hill as senior staff to House Armed Services Committee leaders. With nearly 30 years at the nexus of government, politics, and industry, she is a business development and government relations consultant specializing in cyber solutions for the warfighter. Col. […]

Commemorating the Fortieth Anniversary of President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Speech Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Forty years ago, on March 23, 1983, President Ronald Reagan delivered a speech containing an audacious call to reverse the conventional wisdom of the day – that […]

Strategic Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Marc J. Berkowitz Marc J. Berkowitz is a former Vice President for Strategic Planning at Lockheed Martin. Previously, he served as Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Space Policy. Introduction The 1991 Persian Gulf conflict was called the first “space war” because of the extent to which space […]

Deterrence Lessons from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine:  One Year After Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

Allied Assurance, Extended Deterrence, and Adjusting for the Multipolar Environment: The Way Forward[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States is facing new challenges in trying to assure allies and deter revisionist adversaries, most notably Russia, China, and North Korea. These revisionist […]

The Unchanging Nature of Russian Combat Methods James Lariviere James Lariviere is a retired Marine Corps Major General with more than 20 years of senior civilian and military experience in national security affairs. He served as Deputy Director Politico-Military Affairs (Africa), J5 Strategic Plans and Policy on the Joint Staff and on Capitol Hill. As […]

  National Strategy for Countering North Korea Robert Joseph, the principal author, chaired the group of experts that developed the strategy outlined in this document.  The other members of the group included Robert Collins, Joseph DeTrani, Nicholas Eberstadt, Olivia Enos, David Maxwell, and Greg Scarlatoiu.  All members of the group provided inputs and share in […]

The 2022 NPR:  Commendation and Concerns Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Introduction […]

Turkey’s Future in NATO: Asset or Liability? Paul J. David-Justus Paul J. David-Justus is an Assistant Research Fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction and is a current doctoral candidate at Missouri State University’s graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. The views reflected here are his […]