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“America First”:  Neither Cosmopolitan Nor Isolationist Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

AI is for Allies Dr. Michael Hochberg Dr. Michael Hochberg earned his PhD in Applied Physics from Caltech; he is currently a visiting scholar at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University.  His writings on geopolitics can be found at longwalls.substack.com and his twitter is @TheHochberg. Marcus Gomez Marcus Gomez earned his BS in Computer […]

Coming Full Circle on Semiconductor Deterrence Dr. Jared M. McKinney Dr. Jared M. McKinney is an assistant professor of international security at Air War College. He is the coauthor, with Peter Harris, of “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,” in Parameters, Vol. 51 (2021). In November of 2021, as the world faced semiconductor shortages due […]

The Implications of the Air Force’s Suspension of the Next Generation Air Dominance Fighter—Symptomatic of a Crisis in Defense Spending Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space […]

President-Elect Trump and Extended Nuclear Deterrence:  Whither Germany? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

Post-Truth and National Security: Background and Options for a New Administration Dr. Gary L. Geipel Dr. Gary L. Geipel is a Senior Associate at the National Institute for Public Policy, a professor of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, and a communications consultant to industry and public affairs clients. Previously, he held diverse […]

On Victory and the Search for a Status Quo Ante Bellum Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the […]

U.S. Domestic Polarization and Allied Assurance Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. U.S. domestic polarization affects U.S. foreign policy by negatively shaping allies’ perceptions of Washington’s credibility, hence undermining the U.S. goal of assuring them and managing the alliance structure. While the impact of […]

U.S. Nuclear Deterrence:  What Went Wrong and What Can Be Done? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to […]

Escalation: A Tool to Be Considered, Not Dismissed Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and University of Virginia’s Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation In recent […]

The Chinese Nuclear Threat Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy […]

Cold War Lessons for Revitalizing Deterrence Christopher J. Griffin Christopher J. Griffin, senior program officer at the Smith Richardson Foundation; former executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative and legislative director in the office of Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (ID-CT).  In the three years since Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin first described the Biden Administration’s […]

National Security Decisions for the Next President Chris Williams Chris Williams previously held senior positions in the U.S. Congress and Department of Defense.  He also chaired the Defense Policy Board.  He currently serves as an advisor to various U.S. Government organizations, Chair of the Moorman Center for Space Studies at the National Security Space Association, […]

“Knowing Your Enemy”:  James Schlesinger and the Origins of Competitive, Tailored Deterrence Strategies Dr. Kyle Balzer Dr. Kyle Balzer is a Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. In the years ahead, the United States will confront an unprecedented geopolitical challenge that threatens its far-flung alliances and, more directly, the security of the American homeland. […]

Addressing Challenges to Allied Assurance in an Emerging Tripolar Nuclear Environment[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Introduction:  The International Context The context in which the United States is managing its alliance relations is unprecedented. Much has been written lately about the rapid deterioration […]

Arms Control:  Past Practices Threaten Extended Deterrence Today Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

U.S. Strategic Culture, Homeland Ballistic Missile Defense, and Mutual Vulnerability Jacob Blank Jacob Blank is a graduate of the Defense and Strategic Studies master’s program at Missouri State University and currently works as a federal civilian for the United States Air Force.  All views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect the […]

Macron’s European Union Nuclear Deterrence Initiative and Extended Nuclear Deterrence Dr. Mark Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, […]

Bolstering NC3 Emergency Backup Communications Laurin Groover Laurin Groover spent over a decade on Capitol Hill as senior staff to House Armed Services Committee leaders. With nearly 30 years at the nexus of government, politics, and industry, she is a business development and government relations consultant specializing in cyber solutions for the warfighter. Col. Donald […]

How the Lack of a “Two-War Strategy” Erodes Extended Deterrence and Assurance* David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction For years following the Cold War, the United States was considered the sole superpower and […]

7 October—The Unlearning of the Lessons of 1973 Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. “Son of Man, speak to your people and say to […]

No First Use:  Threatening Alliance Cohesion, Assurance, and Non-Proliferation Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State […]

The 2024 Edition of the Federation of American Scientists’ Report on Russian Nuclear Weapons: Flaws and Fallacies Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal […]

The INF Treaty, Extended Deterrence, and Assurance: A Case Study in Unintended Consequences Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction The 31-year lifespan of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces […]

U.S. Homeland Missile Defense: Charting A Different Course* Dr. Peppino DeBiaso Dr. DeBiaso served in a number of positions in the Department of Defense including as the Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy from 2000-2021. He is currently Adjunct Professor in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies Graduate School in Fairfax, Virginia […]

NATO’s Year of Deterrence Todd Clawson Retired U.S. Navy commander and former NATO Operations Chief in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. He is currently a doctoral student in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies graduate program. 2024 is a pivotal year for the NATO Alliance. With the Ukraine War […]

Israel Seeks A New Strategic Concept Ilan Berman Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out a brazen, large-scale attack on communities in the south of Israel. The offensive, dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood,” entailed the breaching of the border fence separating […]

From Pacifism to Nuclear Deterrence: Norman Angell and the Founding of NATO Michael Rühle former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO On April 4, 1949, the foreign ministers of the United States, Canada and ten Western European countries met in Washington to sign a defense pact. Barely four years after the end […]

Tailoring Deterrence by Studying Restraints at the Nuclear Brink Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. The classic questions of the Cold War about nuclear escalation and how to […]

“A Time for Choosing”:  Urgent Action or Continuing Folly Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

The Leaked Russian Nuclear Documents and Russian First Use of Nuclear Weapons Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic […]

The following is an interview with Michael Rühle, former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section at NATO. In this interview, Mr. Rühle assesses the relevance and applicability of NATO’s security strategy to the current international security environment. He also identifies the most serious security challenges facing the West and offers his perspective on […]

The Congressional Strategic Posture Commission’s Report:  What the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review Should Have Been Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior […]

Allied Assurance: South Korea, Japan, and Band-Aid Diplomacy Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States has gone on a diplomatic offensive to assure its allies the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan of the U.S. commitment to their security. The Biden Administration […]

Moving U.S. Tracking Sensors to Space[1] Dr. Steve Lambakis Dr. Steve Lambakis is a Senior Defense Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and the Editor-in-Chief of Comparative Strategy, a leading international journal of global affairs and strategic studies. Introduction Today, missile defenses offer protection of the U.S. homeland against long-range ballistic missile attack […]

The following is an interview with General Glen D. VanHerck, USAF Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). In this interview, General VanHerck discusses U.S. homeland defense posture and technology developments that are likely to affect future U.S. missile defense capabilities. He also comments on the importance of developing […]

The following is an interview with Hon. Franklin Miller, Principal, the Scowcroft Group, and a Commissioner on the congressionally mandated 2023 Strategic Posture Commission. Mr. Miller discusses key findings in the bipartisan Commission’s recently released consensus report on America’s strategic posture, including the imperative of proceeding with a timely nuclear weapons modernization program and communicating […]

Great Power Deterrence Lessons from the Middle East War Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

German Musings About a European Nuclear Deterrent Michael Rühle former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”  Samuel Johnson’s well-known observation may be over two centuries old, yet it sums up nicely […]