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Nuclear Deterrence vs Nuclear Warfighting:  Is There a Difference and Does it Matter? Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Hon. Franklin C. Miller Hon. Franklin C. Miller, Principal, the Scowcroft Group, and […]

The Rise of a New Axis: Great Power Struggle and the Future of Conflict Dr. Peppino DeBiaso Dr. Peppino DeBiaso served in a number of positions in the U.S. Department of Defense, including as Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy. He has held research and teaching positions at the ANSER Corporation, California State […]

Washington:  Declare Success and Lead Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of […]

Defending America: The Next Steps in Homeland Missile Defense David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction Among the more consequential decisions the second Trump Administration must confront is whether to allow America’s continued vulnerability […]

Next Steps in Arms Control?  Lessons from Moscow’s New START Violations Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy.   “I don’t understand why we go to the trouble of negotiating with a potential adversary with the understanding that the adversary is going to cheat.” – […]

German Defense Policy:  Where to Now? Michael Rühle Michael Rühle is the former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO, and served for over 30 years in NATO’s international staff, specializing in policy planning, speechwriting, energy security, and hybrid threats. It was a sheer coincidence, yet it was telling:  barely 24 hours after […]

A Terrible Idea:  Buying From Our Adversaries Michael Hochberg Michael Hochberg is a visiting scholar at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University, a Caltech-trained physicist, and a serial semiconductor company founder with four startup exits to his name.  His writings on geopolitics can be found at longwalls.substack.com.   Introduction Buying complex electronics and consumer […]

Deterrence and Arms Control: Ending the Deceptive “Holiday from History” Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the […]

The Implications of Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy and Representative of the […]

Deterrence is Integrated in Theory, but not in Practice: The Problem and (Partial) Solution Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction Deterring a strategic attack on the United […]

A Modest Proposal to Improve Joint Professional Military Education Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation. […]

Geopolitical Consequences of Ukraine’s Defeat Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s economic and societal adaptation for a long war is leaving Ukraine outgunned and outmanned, and its allies are left to scramble for ammunition around the world.[1] The bravery and dedication of the […]

The Biden Administration’s Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance—Increased Cost and Reduced Deterrent Effectiveness Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control […]

The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission Report From a Japanese Perspective Masashi Murano Masashi Murano is a senior fellow with Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair. Introduction U.S. allies are interested in America’s strategic posture because it has a direct bearing on the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence guarantees. The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission report comprehensively addresses the qualitative […]

“America First”:  Neither Cosmopolitan Nor Isolationist Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

AI is for Allies Dr. Michael Hochberg Dr. Michael Hochberg earned his PhD in Applied Physics from Caltech; he is currently a visiting scholar at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University.  His writings on geopolitics can be found at longwalls.substack.com and his twitter is @TheHochberg. Marcus Gomez Marcus Gomez earned his BS in Computer […]

Coming Full Circle on Semiconductor Deterrence Dr. Jared M. McKinney Dr. Jared M. McKinney is an assistant professor of international security at Air War College. He is the coauthor, with Peter Harris, of “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,” in Parameters, Vol. 51 (2021). In November of 2021, as the world faced semiconductor shortages due […]

The Implications of the Air Force’s Suspension of the Next Generation Air Dominance Fighter—Symptomatic of a Crisis in Defense Spending Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space […]

President-Elect Trump and Extended Nuclear Deterrence:  Whither Germany? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

Post-Truth and National Security: Background and Options for a New Administration Dr. Gary L. Geipel Dr. Gary L. Geipel is a Senior Associate at the National Institute for Public Policy, a professor of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, and a communications consultant to industry and public affairs clients. Previously, he held diverse […]

On Victory and the Search for a Status Quo Ante Bellum Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the […]

U.S. Domestic Polarization and Allied Assurance Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. U.S. domestic polarization affects U.S. foreign policy by negatively shaping allies’ perceptions of Washington’s credibility, hence undermining the U.S. goal of assuring them and managing the alliance structure. While the impact of […]

U.S. Nuclear Deterrence:  What Went Wrong and What Can Be Done? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to […]

Escalation: A Tool to Be Considered, Not Dismissed Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and University of Virginia’s Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation In recent […]

The Chinese Nuclear Threat Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy […]

Cold War Lessons for Revitalizing Deterrence Christopher J. Griffin Christopher J. Griffin, senior program officer at the Smith Richardson Foundation; former executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative and legislative director in the office of Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (ID-CT).  In the three years since Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin first described the Biden Administration’s […]

National Security Decisions for the Next President Chris Williams Chris Williams previously held senior positions in the U.S. Congress and Department of Defense.  He also chaired the Defense Policy Board.  He currently serves as an advisor to various U.S. Government organizations, Chair of the Moorman Center for Space Studies at the National Security Space Association, […]

“Knowing Your Enemy”:  James Schlesinger and the Origins of Competitive, Tailored Deterrence Strategies Dr. Kyle Balzer Dr. Kyle Balzer is a Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. In the years ahead, the United States will confront an unprecedented geopolitical challenge that threatens its far-flung alliances and, more directly, the security of the American homeland. […]

Addressing Challenges to Allied Assurance in an Emerging Tripolar Nuclear Environment[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Introduction:  The International Context The context in which the United States is managing its alliance relations is unprecedented. Much has been written lately about the rapid deterioration […]

Arms Control:  Past Practices Threaten Extended Deterrence Today Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

U.S. Strategic Culture, Homeland Ballistic Missile Defense, and Mutual Vulnerability Jacob Blank Jacob Blank is a graduate of the Defense and Strategic Studies master’s program at Missouri State University and currently works as a federal civilian for the United States Air Force.  All views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect the […]

Macron’s European Union Nuclear Deterrence Initiative and Extended Nuclear Deterrence Dr. Mark Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, […]

Bolstering NC3 Emergency Backup Communications Laurin Groover Laurin Groover spent over a decade on Capitol Hill as senior staff to House Armed Services Committee leaders. With nearly 30 years at the nexus of government, politics, and industry, she is a business development and government relations consultant specializing in cyber solutions for the warfighter. Col. Donald […]

How the Lack of a “Two-War Strategy” Erodes Extended Deterrence and Assurance* David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction For years following the Cold War, the United States was considered the sole superpower and […]

7 October—The Unlearning of the Lessons of 1973 Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. “Son of Man, speak to your people and say to […]

No First Use:  Threatening Alliance Cohesion, Assurance, and Non-Proliferation Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State […]

The 2024 Edition of the Federation of American Scientists’ Report on Russian Nuclear Weapons: Flaws and Fallacies Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal […]

The INF Treaty, Extended Deterrence, and Assurance: A Case Study in Unintended Consequences Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction The 31-year lifespan of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces […]

U.S. Homeland Missile Defense: Charting A Different Course* Dr. Peppino DeBiaso Dr. DeBiaso served in a number of positions in the Department of Defense including as the Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy from 2000-2021. He is currently Adjunct Professor in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies Graduate School in Fairfax, Virginia […]

NATO’s Year of Deterrence Todd Clawson Retired U.S. Navy commander and former NATO Operations Chief in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. He is currently a doctoral student in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies graduate program. 2024 is a pivotal year for the NATO Alliance. With the Ukraine War […]

Israel Seeks A New Strategic Concept Ilan Berman Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out a brazen, large-scale attack on communities in the south of Israel. The offensive, dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood,” entailed the breaching of the border fence separating […]

From Pacifism to Nuclear Deterrence: Norman Angell and the Founding of NATO Michael Rühle former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO On April 4, 1949, the foreign ministers of the United States, Canada and ten Western European countries met in Washington to sign a defense pact. Barely four years after the end […]

Tailoring Deterrence by Studying Restraints at the Nuclear Brink Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. The classic questions of the Cold War about nuclear escalation and how to […]

“A Time for Choosing”:  Urgent Action or Continuing Folly Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

The Leaked Russian Nuclear Documents and Russian First Use of Nuclear Weapons Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic […]

The following is an interview with Michael Rühle, former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section at NATO. In this interview, Mr. Rühle assesses the relevance and applicability of NATO’s security strategy to the current international security environment. He also identifies the most serious security challenges facing the West and offers his perspective on […]

The Congressional Strategic Posture Commission’s Report:  What the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review Should Have Been Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior […]

Allied Assurance: South Korea, Japan, and Band-Aid Diplomacy Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States has gone on a diplomatic offensive to assure its allies the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan of the U.S. commitment to their security. The Biden Administration […]

Moving U.S. Tracking Sensors to Space[1] Dr. Steve Lambakis Dr. Steve Lambakis is a Senior Defense Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and the Editor-in-Chief of Comparative Strategy, a leading international journal of global affairs and strategic studies. Introduction Today, missile defenses offer protection of the U.S. homeland against long-range ballistic missile attack […]

The following is an interview with General Glen D. VanHerck, USAF Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). In this interview, General VanHerck discusses U.S. homeland defense posture and technology developments that are likely to affect future U.S. missile defense capabilities. He also comments on the importance of developing […]

The following is an interview with Hon. Franklin Miller, Principal, the Scowcroft Group, and a Commissioner on the congressionally mandated 2023 Strategic Posture Commission. Mr. Miller discusses key findings in the bipartisan Commission’s recently released consensus report on America’s strategic posture, including the imperative of proceeding with a timely nuclear weapons modernization program and communicating […]

Great Power Deterrence Lessons from the Middle East War Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

German Musings About a European Nuclear Deterrent Michael Rühle former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”  Samuel Johnson’s well-known observation may be over two centuries old, yet it sums up nicely […]

European Allies’ Views of Russia’s Nuclear Policy after the Escalation of Its War in Ukraine Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s nuclear threats have not gone unnoticed among citizens of European nations, including in those countries that reportedly host U.S. battlefield (also sometimes […]

Deterrence via Intentional Civilian Targeting: A Dangerous Cold War Anachronism Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

The October 2023 Strategic Commission Report and U.S. Nuclear Weapons Requirements Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, […]

TLAM-N and SLCM-N: Lessons for Extended Deterrence and Assuring Allies Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of […]

How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Russia Have? The Size and Characteristics of the Russian Nuclear Stockpile Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, […]

Back to the Future: U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Today and the Foster Panel Study* Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the […]

What Do Russia’s Nuclear Threats Tell Us About Arms Control Prospects? Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Arms control with the Russian Federation has hit a rough patch due to Russia’s essential shut down of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), aggressive […]

The Rejection of Intentional Population Targeting for “Tripolar” Deterrence Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Dr. John […]

The Fallacy of “Deterrence by Detection” David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy.  Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from 2017-2019. In 2021, then-Commandant of the Marine Corps, General David Berger, outlined a new way of thinking about deterrence, which he […]

How to Unsettle an Alliance:  Subordinate Extended Deterrence to Antiquated Arms Control Initiatives Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the […]

The Death of the New START Treaty Dr. Mark Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director […]

Arms Control in the Emerging Deterrence Context[1] Keith B. Payne Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. David J. […]

Self-Perceptions and Nuclear Weapons  Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. Introduction The Middle East may be on the brink of […]

On Arms Control and Why New START’s Suspension Does Not Really Matter Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States ought not mourn Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). Claims that the treaty was “a key stabilizing force […]

Information Operations against the United States: Defensive Actions are Needed John A. Gentry John A. Gentry is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. He is a former CIA analyst and a retired U.S. Army Reserve officer. He writes frequently on intelligence-related topics. Countries long have tried to influence important foreign audiences, often by using their […]

Emerging Challenges to Extended Deterrence, Assurance and the Future of U.S. Alliances Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office […]

An Interview with General Kevin Chilton (USAF, Ret.), former Commander of U.S. Strategic Command Gen. Chilton addresses the Biden Administration’s nuclear policies, the threats posed by China and Russia, and the importance of having a credible nuclear deterrent in a dynamic international strategic environment.  This interview was conducted by David J. Trachtenberg, Vice President of […]

Continuity and Change in Nuclear Modernization: Ensuring an Effective Future Nuclear Deterrent Thomas S. Troyano Thomas S. Troyano is a Vice President at Systems Planning and Analysis (SPA) and former Director for Strategic Deterrence and Capabilities in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment.  The views expressed in this article […]

Nuclear Disarmament:  The Contemporary “Great Illusion”? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Introduction […]

Cybersecurity Considerations for the New Congress Laurin Groover Laurin Groover spent over a decade on Capitol Hill as senior staff to House Armed Services Committee leaders. With nearly 30 years at the nexus of government, politics, and industry, she is a business development and government relations consultant specializing in cyber solutions for the warfighter. Col. […]

Commemorating the Fortieth Anniversary of President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Speech Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Forty years ago, on March 23, 1983, President Ronald Reagan delivered a speech containing an audacious call to reverse the conventional wisdom of the day – that […]

Strategic Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Marc J. Berkowitz Marc J. Berkowitz is a former Vice President for Strategic Planning at Lockheed Martin. Previously, he served as Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Space Policy. Introduction The 1991 Persian Gulf conflict was called the first “space war” because of the extent to which space […]

Deterrence Lessons from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine:  One Year After Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

Allied Assurance, Extended Deterrence, and Adjusting for the Multipolar Environment: The Way Forward[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States is facing new challenges in trying to assure allies and deter revisionist adversaries, most notably Russia, China, and North Korea. These revisionist […]

The Unchanging Nature of Russian Combat Methods James Lariviere James Lariviere is a retired Marine Corps Major General with more than 20 years of senior civilian and military experience in national security affairs. He served as Deputy Director Politico-Military Affairs (Africa), J5 Strategic Plans and Policy on the Joint Staff and on Capitol Hill. As […]

  National Strategy for Countering North Korea Robert Joseph, the principal author, chaired the group of experts that developed the strategy outlined in this document.  The other members of the group included Robert Collins, Joseph DeTrani, Nicholas Eberstadt, Olivia Enos, David Maxwell, and Greg Scarlatoiu.  All members of the group provided inputs and share in […]

The 2022 NPR:  Commendation and Concerns Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Introduction […]

Turkey’s Future in NATO: Asset or Liability? Paul J. David-Justus Paul J. David-Justus is an Assistant Research Fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction and is a current doctoral candidate at Missouri State University’s graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. The views reflected here are his […]

Mischaracterizing U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Policy: The Myth of Deliberate Civilian Targeting David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Foreign Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from 2017-2019. Introduction As the debate over the proper role for nuclear weapons in U.S. national security […]

Extended Deterrence:  Back to the Future David J. Lonsdale David J. Lonsdale is a Senior Lecturer in War Studies, at the University of Hull, UK. His publications include Understanding Contemporary Strategy, Understanding Modern Warfare, and Alexander the Great: Lessons in Strategy. Introduction It is well understood that deterrence is a challenging strategic activity.[1] Said challenge […]

Tilting at Windmills: Nuclear Disarmament Advocacy in an Anarchic World Order Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

Five Arms Control Lessons for the 100th Anniversary of the 1922 Washington Naval Conference Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy.  He was formerly Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy at the Pentagon. The 100th anniversary of the conclusion of the […]

Joint Prepared Statement and Opening Remarks Before the United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, United States Nuclear Strategy and Policy, September 20, 2022 Eric S. Edelman, Counselor, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Franklin C. Miller, Principal, The Scowcroft Group. Joint Statement Introduction Chairman Reed, Ranking member Inhofe, members of the Committee, thank […]

A Curious Criterion: Cost Effective at the Margin for Missile Defense Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy.  He was formerly Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy at the Pentagon. Introduction What are the valid criteria for choosing a homeland missile […]

Deterrence Via Mutual Vulnerability? Why Not Now Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. […]

The Importance of Professional Nuclear Policy Analysis Tom Ramos Tom Ramos is a physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and author of From Berkeley to Berlin: How the Rad Lab Helped Avert Nuclear War (Naval Institute Press, 2022). In a recent article entitled, “Deterrence is Not Rocket Science: It is More Difficult,”[i] Keith Payne […]

Allied Assurance and Extended Deterrence in Multipolarity[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Today, the United States and its allies find themselves amidst significant changes in the strategic environment. These changes are generating new extended deterrence and assurance requirements.[2] Extended deterrence and assurance are […]

Rethinking Deterrence:  How and Why[1] Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The following […]

Trust Without Verification: The Wrong Approach to Arms Control Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and […]

China’s Strategic Ambitions: A Strategy to Address China’s Nuclear Breakout Jennifer Bradley Jennifer Bradley is a Senior Deterrence Analyst in the Plans and Policy Directorate at United States Strategic Command.  She is also a doctoral student in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies program.  The views presented in this article are those of the […]

Nuclear Fears: Are We Forgetting Nuclear Dangers? Michael Rühle Michael Rühle is Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section in NATO’s Emerging Security Challenges Division. The views expressed are his own. Some Western observers have long been lamenting about what they perceive as a fading of nuclear fears among the broader population. In contrast […]

The U.S. ASAT Test Ban: Implications for Security Steve Lambakis Steve Lambakis is a Senior Defense Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, Fairfax, VA, and the Strategic Alliance Business Group, Fairfax, VA. On April 18, 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that the United States had adopted a unilateral ban on conducting direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) […]

Western Ideas of War and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Beatrice Heuser Beatrice Heuser is an historian and holds the Chair of International Relations at the University of Glasgow. She is currently seconded to the General Staff College of the Bundeswehr in Hamburg. Her recent book, War: A Genealogy of Western Ideas and Practices, was published by […]

Deterrence is Not Rocket Science: It is More Difficult Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus and former Department Head of the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to […]

The Logic of Israel’s Laser Wall Ilan Berman Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. In early February, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced a major new defense initiative when, in an address to Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, he laid out his administration’s […]

Russian Nuclear Strategy in the Ukraine War: An Interim Report Dr. Stephen Blank Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense or the United States government. Introduction Russian nuclear threats preceded […]

Russia’s War in Ukraine and Implications for Its Influence Operations in the West Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and its subsequent atrocities on Ukrainian territory have affected Moscow’s ability to successfully conduct influence operations in […]