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The New Trump-Class Battleship Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy and Representative of the Secretary of […]

A New Latin American Policy: The Trump Doctrine or a Trump Corollary? Santiago Spadiliero Santiago Spadiliero is Program Director and Graduate Research Faculty Member at Missouri State University’s School of Defense and Strategic Studies where he currently co-teaches the course “Security Challenges in the Americas.”   In January 2025, President Donald J. Trump inaugurated his […]

Why President Trump Ordered the Resumption of U.S. Nuclear Testing Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy […]

Toward a Free and Unified Korea—Resolving the Korea Challenge at Its Source Robert Joseph chaired the Free and Unified Korea working group that developed the findings, conclusions and policy recommendations contained in this report. The other members of the working group were Nicholas Eberstadt, James Flynn, Hyun-seung Lee, Michael Marshall, David Maxwell, and Greg Scarlatoiu. […]

Critical Strategic Deterrence Questions for Today—Lecture at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s 66th Annual Assembly Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus and former Department Head at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant […]

Covert Nuclear Testing and the Enormous Increase in Chinese Nuclear Weapons Capability Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms […]

Parsing the New National Defense Strategy: Upending Bipartisan Tradition David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Senior Scholar with the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the first Trump Administration. Introduction After a prolonged delay, the Trump Administration finally issued the unclassified version of […]

The United States and the Causes of War:  Korean War Case Study[1] Kathleen Ellis Kathleen Ellis is a Senior Policy Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views of National Defense University or the United States Government.   The […]

Full Steam Ahead on the SLCM-N David J. Trachtenberg Davud J. Trachtenberg is Senior Scholar with the National Institute for Public Policy and served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the first Trump Administration.   Introduction Mark Twain reportedly said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s […]

No Extension of the New START Treaty?  Trump Made the Right Decision Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms […]

German Nuclear Independence From Washington? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus and former Department Head at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office […]

The Coming War in America Christopher A. Williams Christopher A. Williams previously held senior positions in the U.S. Congress and Department of Defense.  He also chaired the Defense Policy Board.  He currently serves as an independent consultant. Introduction As overseas threats to U.S. national interests intensify, America’s enemies can be expected to carry the fight […]

What Israel Sees in Somaliland Ilan Berman Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. Although it has been pushed off the front pages by the Trump Administration’s dramatic early January ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro and the current unrest roiling Iran, another recent geopolitical development deserves […]

Parsing the New National Security Strategy: A Remarkable About Face David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Senior Scholar with the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the first Trump Administration. Introduction After nearly a year in office, the Trump Administration finally issued its […]

U.S. Nuclear Weapon Testing?  First Ask the Right Questions Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus and former Department Head at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior […]

The Challenge of a Rising, Nuclear-Armed China Kathleen Ellis Kathleen Ellis is a Senior Policy Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction (CSWMD) in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views of National Defense University […]

President Trump Is Correct About Adversary Nuclear Testing Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy and Representative […]

Time To End New START:  The Treaty Is Not in America’s Security Interest* James H. Anderson Dr. James H. Anderson is an adjunct faculty member at Missouri State University’s graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies. David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Senior Scholar and former Vice President of the National Institute for Public […]

Losing Perspective: Nuclear Weapons and U.S. National Security Strategy Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy.  She is the recipient of the 2025 U.S. Strategic Command’s annual Gen. Larry Welch Writing Award, the author of numerous articles and U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Cooperation: Alliance Politics in […]

The Zapad-2025 Theater Military Exercise: More Russian Nuclear Intimidation Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy and Representative […]

After Iran—A Look Forward Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. Overview It is often difficult to know whether events constitute […]

Putin’s New START Offer:  We Won’t Get Fooled Again Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy.  She is the recipient of the 2025 U.S. Strategic Command’s annual Gen. Larry Welch Writing Award, the author of numerous articles and U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Cooperation: Alliance Politics in […]

Nuclear Deterrence in Question:  How We Got Here, and What to Do Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus and former Department Head at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, […]

Ending the Threat from Iran Amb. Robert Joseph brought together the group of experts that developed the following policy paper outlining a new approach to end the threat from Iran.  Other members were Joseph DeTrani, Keith Payne, David Shedd, and Robert Torricelli.  Brief biographies are at the end of the document. Since the revelations of Iran’s […]

DIMET: Shaping the Age of “Techno-Strategic” Power Curtis McGiffin Colonel Curtis McGiffin (U.S. Air Force, Ret.) is the vice president for education of the National Institute for Deterrence Studies, an adjunct faculty member at Missouri State University’s School of Defense and Strategic Studies, and president of Klaxon Consulting Inc. He has 30 years of total […]

Russia Is at War with the West Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. If the victim does not understand the game, the loss of a pawn here or a knight there does not worry him. If his thoughts are elsewhere, he does not see […]

Tailoring Deterrence:  What and Why? Sarah Faris Sarah Faris graduated with a JD from Michigan State University College of Law, where she was a senior associate editor on the International Law Review and interned with the U.S. Army JAG Corps at Fort Carson. She subsequently served as an Attorney Advisor at the Department of Veterans […]

Defense and Strategic Studies:  A Brief History Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus and former Department Head at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to […]

Facilitating the Upload of Nuclear Weapons:  What Congress Must Do David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is a Senior Scholar, National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction The U.S. nuclear enterprise is in desperate need of modernization and recapitalization. Despite dangerous changes in the international […]

A “One-War” Warfighting Construct No Longer Applies to U.S. Nuclear Strategy Paul Amato Paul Amato is the former director for nuclear deterrence policy in the Office of Secretary of Defense for Policy.  He is a retired Marine infantry officer with twenty-eight years of active and reserve service. Before his government service, he was a practicing […]

Striking Iran’s Nuclear Facilities: A U.S. Vital Interest, Not Altruism Dr. Peppi DeBiaso Dr. Peppi DeBiaso served in a number of key civilian positions in the Pentagon, including as Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy. He is currently Adjunct Professor in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies Graduate Program in Washington, D.C. […]

The Twelve-Day War:  Initial Lessons for Golden Dome Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

Opportunistic Aggression in the Past and Lessons for Today: The Korean War  Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction President Harry Truman led the United States from the […]

Why Does America Need Golden Dome? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

Why Arms Control Must Fail  David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction Americans typically believe that fundamental disagreements can be overcome through the patient application of logic, reasoning, and common sense.  In international relations, […]

Deterrence Requirements and Low-Cost Nuclear Upload Options Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

Intelligence and the “Unknown Unknown”: How to Prepare for and Recover from Fundamental Surprise Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. […]

Deterring Opportunistic Aggression During the Cuban Missile Crisis: Necessary Reminders and Applications for Today Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction The popular image of the 1962 Cuban […]

Nuclear Deterrence vs Nuclear Warfighting:  Is There a Difference and Does it Matter? Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Hon. Franklin C. Miller Hon. Franklin C. Miller, Principal, the Scowcroft Group, and […]

The Rise of a New Axis: Great Power Struggle and the Future of Conflict Dr. Peppino DeBiaso Dr. Peppino DeBiaso served in a number of positions in the U.S. Department of Defense, including as Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy. He has held research and teaching positions at the ANSER Corporation, California State […]

Washington:  Declare Success and Lead Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of […]

Defending America: The Next Steps in Homeland Missile Defense David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction Among the more consequential decisions the second Trump Administration must confront is whether to allow America’s continued vulnerability […]

Next Steps in Arms Control?  Lessons from Moscow’s New START Violations Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy.   “I don’t understand why we go to the trouble of negotiating with a potential adversary with the understanding that the adversary is going to cheat.” – […]

German Defense Policy:  Where to Now? Michael Rühle Michael Rühle is the former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO, and served for over 30 years in NATO’s international staff, specializing in policy planning, speechwriting, energy security, and hybrid threats. It was a sheer coincidence, yet it was telling:  barely 24 hours after […]

A Terrible Idea:  Buying From Our Adversaries Michael Hochberg Michael Hochberg is a visiting scholar at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University, a Caltech-trained physicist, and a serial semiconductor company founder with four startup exits to his name.  His writings on geopolitics can be found at longwalls.substack.com.   Introduction Buying complex electronics and consumer […]

Deterrence and Arms Control: Ending the Deceptive “Holiday from History” Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the […]

The Implications of Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy and Representative of the […]

Deterrence is Integrated in Theory, but not in Practice: The Problem and (Partial) Solution Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction Deterring a strategic attack on the United […]

A Modest Proposal to Improve Joint Professional Military Education Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation. […]

Geopolitical Consequences of Ukraine’s Defeat Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s economic and societal adaptation for a long war is leaving Ukraine outgunned and outmanned, and its allies are left to scramble for ammunition around the world.[1] The bravery and dedication of the […]

The Biden Administration’s Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance—Increased Cost and Reduced Deterrent Effectiveness Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control […]

The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission Report From a Japanese Perspective Masashi Murano Masashi Murano is a senior fellow with Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair. Introduction U.S. allies are interested in America’s strategic posture because it has a direct bearing on the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence guarantees. The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission report comprehensively addresses the qualitative […]

“America First”:  Neither Cosmopolitan Nor Isolationist Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

AI is for Allies Dr. Michael Hochberg Dr. Michael Hochberg earned his PhD in Applied Physics from Caltech; he is currently a visiting scholar at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University.  His writings on geopolitics can be found at longwalls.substack.com and his twitter is @TheHochberg. Marcus Gomez Marcus Gomez earned his BS in Computer […]

Coming Full Circle on Semiconductor Deterrence Dr. Jared M. McKinney Dr. Jared M. McKinney is an assistant professor of international security at Air War College. He is the coauthor, with Peter Harris, of “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,” in Parameters, Vol. 51 (2021). In November of 2021, as the world faced semiconductor shortages due […]

The Implications of the Air Force’s Suspension of the Next Generation Air Dominance Fighter—Symptomatic of a Crisis in Defense Spending Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Schneider previously served in DoD as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space […]

President-Elect Trump and Extended Nuclear Deterrence:  Whither Germany? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

Post-Truth and National Security: Background and Options for a New Administration Dr. Gary L. Geipel Dr. Gary L. Geipel is a Senior Associate at the National Institute for Public Policy, a professor of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, and a communications consultant to industry and public affairs clients. Previously, he held diverse […]

On Victory and the Search for a Status Quo Ante Bellum Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and the University of Virginia Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor. Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the […]

U.S. Domestic Polarization and Allied Assurance Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. U.S. domestic polarization affects U.S. foreign policy by negatively shaping allies’ perceptions of Washington’s credibility, hence undermining the U.S. goal of assuring them and managing the alliance structure. While the impact of […]

U.S. Nuclear Deterrence:  What Went Wrong and What Can Be Done? Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to […]

Escalation: A Tool to Be Considered, Not Dismissed Admiral Charles Richard, USN (Ret.) ADM Charles Richard, USN (ret.) is a former Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, and University of Virginia’s Miller Center’s James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor Robert Peters Robert Peters is the Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation In recent […]

The Chinese Nuclear Threat Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy […]

Cold War Lessons for Revitalizing Deterrence Christopher J. Griffin Christopher J. Griffin, senior program officer at the Smith Richardson Foundation; former executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative and legislative director in the office of Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (ID-CT).  In the three years since Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin first described the Biden Administration’s […]

National Security Decisions for the Next President Chris Williams Chris Williams previously held senior positions in the U.S. Congress and Department of Defense.  He also chaired the Defense Policy Board.  He currently serves as an advisor to various U.S. Government organizations, Chair of the Moorman Center for Space Studies at the National Security Space Association, […]

“Knowing Your Enemy”:  James Schlesinger and the Origins of Competitive, Tailored Deterrence Strategies Dr. Kyle Balzer Dr. Kyle Balzer is a Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. In the years ahead, the United States will confront an unprecedented geopolitical challenge that threatens its far-flung alliances and, more directly, the security of the American homeland. […]

Addressing Challenges to Allied Assurance in an Emerging Tripolar Nuclear Environment[1] Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Introduction:  The International Context The context in which the United States is managing its alliance relations is unprecedented. Much has been written lately about the rapid deterioration […]

Arms Control:  Past Practices Threaten Extended Deterrence Today Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of […]

U.S. Strategic Culture, Homeland Ballistic Missile Defense, and Mutual Vulnerability Jacob Blank Jacob Blank is a graduate of the Defense and Strategic Studies master’s program at Missouri State University and currently works as a federal civilian for the United States Air Force.  All views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect the […]

Macron’s European Union Nuclear Deterrence Initiative and Extended Nuclear Deterrence Dr. Mark Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space and Verification Policy, […]

Bolstering NC3 Emergency Backup Communications Laurin Groover Laurin Groover spent over a decade on Capitol Hill as senior staff to House Armed Services Committee leaders. With nearly 30 years at the nexus of government, politics, and industry, she is a business development and government relations consultant specializing in cyber solutions for the warfighter. Col. Donald […]

How the Lack of a “Two-War Strategy” Erodes Extended Deterrence and Assurance* David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy. Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Introduction For years following the Cold War, the United States was considered the sole superpower and […]

7 October—The Unlearning of the Lessons of 1973 Dr. Shmuel Bar Dr. Shmuel Bar heads Shmuel Bar Research and Analysis, an independent boutique analytic group that specializes in the Middle East and Russia and is CEO of IntuView Ltd.  He is a former senior officer in the Israeli Intelligence. “Son of Man, speak to your people and say to […]

No First Use:  Threatening Alliance Cohesion, Assurance, and Non-Proliferation Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State […]

The 2024 Edition of the Federation of American Scientists’ Report on Russian Nuclear Weapons: Flaws and Fallacies Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal […]

The INF Treaty, Extended Deterrence, and Assurance: A Case Study in Unintended Consequences Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Introduction The 31-year lifespan of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces […]

U.S. Homeland Missile Defense: Charting A Different Course* Dr. Peppino DeBiaso Dr. DeBiaso served in a number of positions in the Department of Defense including as the Director of the Office of Missile Defense Policy from 2000-2021. He is currently Adjunct Professor in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies Graduate School in Fairfax, Virginia […]

NATO’s Year of Deterrence Todd Clawson Retired U.S. Navy commander and former NATO Operations Chief in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. He is currently a doctoral student in Missouri State University’s Defense and Strategic Studies graduate program. 2024 is a pivotal year for the NATO Alliance. With the Ukraine War […]

Israel Seeks A New Strategic Concept Ilan Berman Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out a brazen, large-scale attack on communities in the south of Israel. The offensive, dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood,” entailed the breaching of the border fence separating […]

From Pacifism to Nuclear Deterrence: Norman Angell and the Founding of NATO Michael Rühle former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO On April 4, 1949, the foreign ministers of the United States, Canada and ten Western European countries met in Washington to sign a defense pact. Barely four years after the end […]

Tailoring Deterrence by Studying Restraints at the Nuclear Brink Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. The classic questions of the Cold War about nuclear escalation and how to […]

“A Time for Choosing”:  Urgent Action or Continuing Folly Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

The Leaked Russian Nuclear Documents and Russian First Use of Nuclear Weapons Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic […]

The following is an interview with Michael Rühle, former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section at NATO. In this interview, Mr. Rühle assesses the relevance and applicability of NATO’s security strategy to the current international security environment. He also identifies the most serious security challenges facing the West and offers his perspective on […]

The Congressional Strategic Posture Commission’s Report:  What the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review Should Have Been Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior […]

Allied Assurance: South Korea, Japan, and Band-Aid Diplomacy Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. The United States has gone on a diplomatic offensive to assure its allies the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan of the U.S. commitment to their security. The Biden Administration […]

Moving U.S. Tracking Sensors to Space[1] Dr. Steve Lambakis Dr. Steve Lambakis is a Senior Defense Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and the Editor-in-Chief of Comparative Strategy, a leading international journal of global affairs and strategic studies. Introduction Today, missile defenses offer protection of the U.S. homeland against long-range ballistic missile attack […]

The following is an interview with General Glen D. VanHerck, USAF Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). In this interview, General VanHerck discusses U.S. homeland defense posture and technology developments that are likely to affect future U.S. missile defense capabilities. He also comments on the importance of developing […]

The following is an interview with Hon. Franklin Miller, Principal, the Scowcroft Group, and a Commissioner on the congressionally mandated 2023 Strategic Posture Commission. Mr. Miller discusses key findings in the bipartisan Commission’s recently released consensus report on America’s strategic posture, including the imperative of proceeding with a timely nuclear weapons modernization program and communicating […]

Great Power Deterrence Lessons from the Middle East War Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary […]

German Musings About a European Nuclear Deterrent Michael Rühle former Head of the Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”  Samuel Johnson’s well-known observation may be over two centuries old, yet it sums up nicely […]

European Allies’ Views of Russia’s Nuclear Policy after the Escalation of Its War in Ukraine Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Russia’s nuclear threats have not gone unnoticed among citizens of European nations, including in those countries that reportedly host U.S. battlefield (also sometimes […]

Deterrence via Intentional Civilian Targeting: A Dangerous Cold War Anachronism Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the […]

The October 2023 Strategic Commission Report and U.S. Nuclear Weapons Requirements Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, […]

TLAM-N and SLCM-N: Lessons for Extended Deterrence and Assuring Allies Matthew R. Costlow Matthew R. Costlow is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and former Special Assistant in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Department of Defense. Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of […]

How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Russia Have? The Size and Characteristics of the Russian Nuclear Stockpile Dr. Mark B. Schneider Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served as Principal Director for Forces Policy, […]

Back to the Future: U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Today and the Foster Panel Study* Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the […]

What Do Russia’s Nuclear Threats Tell Us About Arms Control Prospects? Dr. Michaela Dodge Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Arms control with the Russian Federation has hit a rough patch due to Russia’s essential shut down of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), aggressive […]

The Rejection of Intentional Population Targeting for “Tripolar” Deterrence Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Dr. John […]

The Fallacy of “Deterrence by Detection” David J. Trachtenberg David J. Trachtenberg is Vice President of the National Institute for Public Policy.  Previously, he served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from 2017-2019. In 2021, then-Commandant of the Marine Corps, General David Berger, outlined a new way of thinking about deterrence, which he […]